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Motherwell vs Hibernian
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 10:13 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MOT 28%Draw 28%HIB 44%
Expected goals · MOT 1.0 · HIB 1.4 · 2.4 total
HIB's attack (1.17x the league average) against MOT's defence (0.96x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MOT's win chance, the blue ones for HIB's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MOT goals | HIB 0 | HIB 1 | HIB 2 | HIB 3 | HIB 4 | HIB 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOT 0 | 10% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MOT 1 | 8% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MOT 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MOT 3 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOT 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOT 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MOT 27.5% · Draw 28.5% · HIB 44.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Hibernian have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Hibernian are favoured but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MOT
4-2-3-1Emmanuel Longelo · Martin Moormann · Jake Girdwood-Reich · Tom Sparrow
Joe Hodge · Lukas Fadinger · Jardell Kanga
Regan Charles-Cook · Tawanda Maswanhise · Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
Bench · 12
Said, Levitt, O'Donnell, Knight-Lebel, Koutroumbis, Vogt +6
HIB
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS49%
MOT CLEAN SHEET25%
HIB CLEAN SHEET35%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MOT
HIB
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MOT
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2HIB
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.38SCORED · PER 90
MOT
1.14
LEAGUE1.38
HIB
1.26
HIB scores +0.12 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MOT
1.63
LEAGUE1.38
HIB
1.39
HIB concedes 0.24 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MOT
9th
On 13 points.
HIB
10th
On 11 points.
MOT sit 1 place higher in the table