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Eldense vs Girona
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:38 UTC · 14 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
ELD 33%Draw 29%GIR 38%
Expected goals · ELD 1.2 · GIR 1.3 · 2.5 total
Expected goals are close (1.2 vs 1.3) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ELD's win chance, the blue ones for GIR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ELD goals | GIR 0 | GIR 1 | GIR 2 | GIR 3 | GIR 4 | GIR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELD 0 | 9% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| ELD 1 | 9% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| ELD 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ELD 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ELD 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ELD 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ELD 33.2% · Draw 28.9% · GIR 37.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 38% for the slight favourite, 29% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
Eldense score 1.0/game at home, Girona score 1.7/game away — the sides are matched closely.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ELD
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.571%
OVER 2.544%
OVER 3.523%
BTTS50%
ELD CLEAN SHEET28%
GIR CLEAN SHEET31%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ELD
GIR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ELD
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Las Palmas last outGOAL DROUGHT
3
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3GIR
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
ELD
1.04
LEAGUE1.29
GIR
1.70
GIR scores +0.66 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ELD
1.50
LEAGUE1.29
GIR
0.91
GIR concedes 0.59 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
ELD
16th
Hovering above relegation on 14 points.
GIR
3rd
In the promotion play-off places on 24 points.
GIR sit 13 places higher in the table