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Sporting Gijón vs Las Palmas
22 Nov · 15:15 UTC
Estadio El Molinón-Enrique Castro "Quini"
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:34 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
RSG 43%Draw 26%LPA 30%
Expected goals · RSG 1.5 · LPA 1.3 · 2.8 total
RSG's attack (1.00x, about the league average) against LPA's defence (1.07x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for RSG's win chance, the blue ones for LPA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| RSG goals | LPA 0 | LPA 1 | LPA 2 | LPA 3 | LPA 4 | LPA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSG 0 | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| RSG 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| RSG 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| RSG 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| RSG 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RSG 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
RSG 43.3% · Draw 26.3% · LPA 30.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Sporting Gijón have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.6 vs 1.3 gives Sporting Gijón the edge but leaves room for Las Palmas to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
RSG
4-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Sporting Gijón
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 16 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 28 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 28 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Las Palmas
National team · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.578%
OVER 2.553%
OVER 3.531%
BTTS57%
RSG CLEAN SHEET28%
LPA CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
RSG
LPA
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
RSG
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2LPA
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
RSG
1.34
LEAGUE1.29
LPA
1.39
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
RSG
1.27
LEAGUE1.29
LPA
1.27
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
RSG
8th
Mid-table on 23 points.
LPA
11th
Mid-table on 20 points.
RSG sit 3 places higher in the table