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Castellón vs Eldense
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:22 UTC · 11 NovCAS 69%Draw 20%ELD 11%
Expected goals · CAS 2.1 · ELD 0.7 · 2.8 total
CAS's attack (1.35x the league average) against ELD's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CAS's win chance, the blue ones for ELD's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CAS goals | ELD 0 | ELD 1 | ELD 2 | ELD 3 | ELD 4 | ELD 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAS 0 | 7% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAS 1 | 12% | 10% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAS 2 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAS 3 | 9% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAS 4 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAS 5 | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CAS 68.7% · Draw 20.3% · ELD 11.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Castellón should control this — 69% win probability and 1.7 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.1 vs 0.7 leaves little room for Eldense to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CAS
3-4-2-1ELD
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.553%
OVER 3.531%
BTTS45%
CAS CLEAN SHEET49%
ELD CLEAN SHEET12%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CAS
ELD
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CAS
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1ELD
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 to Las Palmas last outGOAL DROUGHT
3
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
CAS
1.71
LEAGUE1.29
ELD
1.04
CAS scores +0.67 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CAS
1.00
LEAGUE1.29
ELD
1.50
CAS concedes 0.50 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
CAS
2nd
In the automatic promotion places on 30 points.
ELD
16th
Hovering above relegation on 14 points.
CAS sit 14 places higher in the table