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Eibar vs Burgos
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:10 UTC · 15 NovEIB 47%Draw 29%BUR 24%
Expected goals · EIB 1.4 · BUR 0.9 · 2.3 total
EIB's attack (1.10x the league average) against BUR's defence (0.86x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for EIB's win chance, the blue ones for BUR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| EIB goals | BUR 0 | BUR 1 | BUR 2 | BUR 3 | BUR 4 | BUR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIB 0 | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| EIB 1 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| EIB 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| EIB 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| EIB 4 | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| EIB 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
EIB 47.0% · Draw 28.9% · BUR 24.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Eibar are favoured at 47% but the draw at 29% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 46% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
EIB
4-2-3-1Imanol García de Albéniz · Markel Arana · Jair Amador · Álvaro Rodríguez
Aleix Garrido · Jon Guruzeta · Iván Gil · Ander Madariaga · Malcom Ares
Bench · 12
Magunazelaia, Nolaskoain, Martón, Cubero, Pejiño, Núñez +6
BUR
4-4-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Eibar
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Rib Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 27 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Burgos
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.568%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS46%
EIB CLEAN SHEET40%
BUR CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
EIB
BUR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
EIB
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2BUR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Leganes last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
EIB
1.38
LEAGUE1.29
BUR
1.19
EIB scores +0.19 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
EIB
1.03
LEAGUE1.29
BUR
0.99
Defences level on season average
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
EIB
6th
In the promotion play-off places on 23 points.
BUR
4th
In the promotion play-off places on 24 points.
BUR sit 2 places higher in the table