Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid — build-up and preview.
Kickoff
Sun · 04:30 PM
Venue
Estadio Gran Canaria
Expected goals · LPA 1.4 · RVA 1.0 · 2.4 total
LPA's attack (0.94x (below the league average)) against RVA's defence (0.99x (tighter than average)) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LPA's win chance, the blue ones for RVA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LPA goals | RVA 0 | RVA 1 | RVA 2 | RVA 3 | RVA 4 | RVA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPA 0 | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LPA 1 | 12% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| LPA 2 | 9% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LPA 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LPA 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LPA 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LPA 46.0% · Draw 28.6% · RVA 25.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Las Palmas have the edge at 46% — enough to favour them, not enough to feel certain.
Las Palmas's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.33/game there, Real Valladolid concede 1.33/game on the road.
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
No head-to-head on record
We don't have prior meetings between these sides — recent results and the model read carry the preview instead.
how each side performs at their ground
LPA scores +0.47 more per 90
RVA concedes 0.51 fewer per 90
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
Card profiles need a season sample
Yellow and red cards per game — measured against the league average — appear once both clubs have built a meaningful sample.
No table for this competition
Knockout and friendly fixtures aren't ranked by a league standing — table position and stakes show for league matches.
Shots on target, shot conversion, and xG lift will appear here once the match ends.
