Almería vs Burgos — build-up and preview.
Kickoff
Sat · 02:15 PM
Venue
Power Horse Stadium
Expected goals · ALM 1.5 · BUR 0.9 · 2.4 total
ALM's attack (1.19x the league average) against BUR's defence (0.85x (tighter than average)) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ALM's win chance, the blue ones for BUR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ALM goals | BUR 0 | BUR 1 | BUR 2 | BUR 3 | BUR 4 | BUR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALM 0 | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ALM 1 | 13% | 13% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| ALM 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ALM 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ALM 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ALM 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ALM 51.2% · Draw 27.2% · BUR 21.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Almería have the edge at 51% — enough to favour them, not enough to feel certain.
BTTS at 47% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
No head-to-head on record
We don't have prior meetings between these sides — recent results and the model read carry the preview instead.
how each side performs at their ground
Attacks level on season average
ALM concedes 0.42 fewer per 90
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
Card profiles need a season sample
Yellow and red cards per game — measured against the league average — appear once both clubs have built a meaningful sample.
No table for this competition
Knockout and friendly fixtures aren't ranked by a league standing — table position and stakes show for league matches.
Shots on target, shot conversion, and xG lift will appear here once the match ends.
