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RC Celta Fortuna vs Real Valladolid
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 18:55 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
CEL 44%Draw 25%VLL 31%
Expected goals · CEL 1.7 · VLL 1.4 · 3.1 total
CEL's attack (1.09x the league average) against VLL's defence (1.06x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CEL's win chance, the blue ones for VLL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CEL goals | VLL 0 | VLL 1 | VLL 2 | VLL 3 | VLL 4 | VLL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEL 0 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CEL 1 | 7% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| CEL 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| CEL 3 | 4% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CEL 4 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CEL 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CEL 44.4% · Draw 24.9% · VLL 30.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
RC Celta Fortuna have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 62% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 11% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CEL
3-4-3VLL
4-1-3-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Real Valladolid
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 17 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.559%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS62%
CEL CLEAN SHEET25%
VLL CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CEL
VLL
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CEL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VLL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
CEL
1.47
LEAGUE1.29
VLL
1.25
CEL scores +0.22 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CEL
1.96
LEAGUE1.29
VLL
1.44
VLL concedes 0.52 fewer per 90
