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Roma vs Monza
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:49 UTC · 15 NovROM 81%Draw 13%MNZ 6%
Expected goals · ROM 2.8 · MNZ 0.7 · 3.5 total
ROM's attack (1.50x the league average) against MNZ's defence (1.32x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 2.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ROM's win chance, the blue ones for MNZ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ROM goals | MNZ 0 | MNZ 1 | MNZ 2 | MNZ 3 | MNZ 4 | MNZ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROM 0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROM 1 | 8% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROM 2 | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROM 3 | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROM 4 | 8% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ROM 5 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ROM 80.7% · Draw 13.2% · MNZ 6.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (6.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AS Roma are strong favourites at 81% — expected goals of 2.8 vs 0.7 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Monza concede 1.9 per game on the model's weighted record, and AS Roma's most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
AS Roma
Back Injury · Could return, due 18 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Finger · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Monza
Knock Injury · Could return, due 22 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 24 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.587%
OVER 2.568%
OVER 3.546%
BTTS47%
ROM CLEAN SHEET50%
MNZ CLEAN SHEET6%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ROM
MNZ
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ROM
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0MNZ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Atalanta last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
ROM
1.92
LEAGUE1.31
MNZ
0.96
ROM scores +0.96 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ROM
0.90
LEAGUE1.31
MNZ
1.88
ROM concedes 0.98 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
ROM
3rd
In the Champions League places on 27 points.
MNZ
18th
In the relegation zone on 7 points.
ROM sit 15 places higher in the table
