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Sassuolo vs Genoa
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:35 UTC · 8 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SAS 35%Draw 28%GEN 38%
Expected goals · SAS 1.3 · GEN 1.3 · 2.6 total
Expected goals are close (1.3 vs 1.3) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SAS's win chance, the blue ones for GEN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SAS goals | GEN 0 | GEN 1 | GEN 2 | GEN 3 | GEN 4 | GEN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SAS 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| SAS 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SAS 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAS 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAS 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SAS 34.5% · Draw 27.9% · GEN 37.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 38% for the slight favourite, 28% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
Sassuolo score 1.3/game at home, Genoa score 1.1/game away — the sides are matched closely.
THE CAVEAT
Sassuolo are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · SAS5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SAS
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS53%
SAS CLEAN SHEET26%
GEN CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SAS
GEN
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SAS
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–3 to Roma last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5GEN
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to AC Milan last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
SAS
1.27
LEAGUE1.31
GEN
1.06
SAS scores +0.21 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SAS
1.90
LEAGUE1.31
GEN
1.33
GEN concedes 0.57 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SAS
17th
Hovering above relegation on 8 points.
GEN
13th
Mid-table on 13 points.
GEN sit 4 places higher in the table
