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Parma vs Roma
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:52 UTC · 10 NovPAR 15%Draw 24%ROM 61%
Expected goals · PAR 0.8 · ROM 1.8 · 2.6 total
ROM's attack (1.41x the league average) against PAR's defence (1.07x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for PAR's win chance, the blue ones for ROM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| PAR goals | ROM 0 | ROM 1 | ROM 2 | ROM 3 | ROM 4 | ROM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAR 0 | 8% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| PAR 1 | 5% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| PAR 2 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| PAR 3 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PAR 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PAR 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PAR 15.3% · Draw 23.7% · ROM 61.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AS Roma should control this — 61% win probability and 1.9 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 0.8 vs 1.8 leaves little room for Parma to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
PAR
3-4-2-1ROM
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Parma
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Leg Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
AS Roma
Back Injury · Could return, due 18 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Finger · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS47%
PAR CLEAN SHEET16%
ROM CLEAN SHEET45%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PAR
ROM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
PAR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Bologna last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3ROM
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
PAR
0.85
LEAGUE1.31
ROM
1.92
ROM scores +1.07 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
PAR
1.36
LEAGUE1.31
ROM
0.90
ROM concedes 0.46 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
PAR
16th
Hovering above relegation on 8 points.
ROM
3rd
In the Champions League places on 27 points.
ROM sit 13 places higher in the table
