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Inter vs Genoa
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:47 UTC · 15 NovINT 71%Draw 19%GEN 10%
Expected goals · INT 2.2 · GEN 0.7 · 2.9 total
INT's attack (1.73x the league average) against GEN's defence (0.91x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for INT's win chance, the blue ones for GEN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| INT goals | GEN 0 | GEN 1 | GEN 2 | GEN 3 | GEN 4 | GEN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INT 0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| INT 1 | 11% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| INT 2 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| INT 3 | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| INT 4 | 5% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| INT 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
INT 71.0% · Draw 18.8% · GEN 10.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Internazionale should control this — 71% win probability and 2.3 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 2.2 vs 0.7 leaves little room for Genoa to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
INT
3-5-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Internazionale
Illness · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 24 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 25 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Genoa
No absences reported.
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.556%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS46%
INT CLEAN SHEET49%
GEN CLEAN SHEET11%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
INT
GEN
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
INT
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1GEN
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to AC Milan last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
INT
2.32
LEAGUE1.31
GEN
1.06
INT scores +1.26 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
INT
1.00
LEAGUE1.31
GEN
1.33
INT concedes 0.33 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
INT
2nd
In the Champions League places on 28 points.
GEN
13th
Mid-table on 13 points.
INT sit 11 places higher in the table
