Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Lazio vs Lecce
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:26 UTC · 8 NovLAZ 57%Draw 25%LEC 19%
Expected goals · LAZ 1.7 · LEC 0.9 · 2.6 total
LAZ's attack (1.12x the league average) against LEC's defence (1.09x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LAZ's win chance, the blue ones for LEC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LAZ goals | LEC 0 | LEC 1 | LEC 2 | LEC 3 | LEC 4 | LEC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAZ 0 | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAZ 1 | 12% | 12% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAZ 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAZ 3 | 6% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAZ 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LAZ 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LAZ 56.5% · Draw 25.0% · LEC 18.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.9%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Lazio at 57% — Lecce concede 1.6 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Lazio scoring 1.5/game at home, Lecce scoring 0.8/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LAZ
4-3-3Alfonso Pedraza · Diogo Leite · Danilho Doekhi · Romano Floriani Mussolini
Bench · 12
Provstgaard, Lazzari, Cancellieri, Cataldi, Motta, Farcomeni +6
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Lazio
Muscle Injury · Expected back 27 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Thigh Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Lecce
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.549%
OVER 3.527%
BTTS49%
LAZ CLEAN SHEET41%
LEC CLEAN SHEET18%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LAZ
LEC
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LAZ
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0LEC
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
LAZ
1.51
LEAGUE1.31
LEC
0.84
LAZ scores +0.67 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LAZ
1.04
LEAGUE1.31
LEC
1.57
LAZ concedes 0.53 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LAZ
1st
Leading the table on 29 points.
LEC
14th
Mid-table on 10 points.
LAZ sit 13 places higher in the table
