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AC Milan vs Frosinone
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 17:42 UTC · 10 NovMIL 60%Draw 22%FRO 18%
Expected goals · MIL 2.1 · FRO 1.1 · 3.2 total
MIL's attack (1.21x the league average) against FRO's defence (1.24x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MIL's win chance, the blue ones for FRO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MIL goals | FRO 0 | FRO 1 | FRO 2 | FRO 3 | FRO 4 | FRO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL 0 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 1 | 8% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MIL 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| MIL 3 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MIL 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MIL 60.1% · Draw 21.6% · FRO 18.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
AC Milan should control this — 60% win probability and 1.6 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Frosinone concede 1.6 per game on the model's weighted record, and AC Milan's most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MIL
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
AC Milan
Knee Injury · Could return, due 18 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Thigh Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
Ankle Injury · Expected back 20 Jan
Frosinone
Suspended · Could return, due 22 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Groin Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 31 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.584%
OVER 2.562%
OVER 3.540%
BTTS59%
MIL CLEAN SHEET33%
FRO CLEAN SHEET12%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MIL
FRO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MIL
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1FRO
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Cagliari last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
MIL
1.65
LEAGUE1.31
FRO
1.24
MIL scores +0.41 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MIL
1.10
LEAGUE1.31
FRO
1.55
MIL concedes 0.45 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MIL
4th
In the Champions League places on 24 points.
FRO
6th
Mid-table on 20 points.
MIL sit 2 places higher in the table
