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Sassuolo vs Napoli
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 10:08 UTC · 15 NovSAS 21%Draw 23%NAP 57%
Expected goals · SAS 1.1 · NAP 2.0 · 3.1 total
NAP's attack (1.13x the league average) against SAS's defence (1.45x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SAS's win chance, the blue ones for NAP's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SAS goals | NAP 0 | NAP 1 | NAP 2 | NAP 3 | NAP 4 | NAP 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAS 0 | 5% | 8% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| SAS 1 | 4% | 11% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| SAS 2 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| SAS 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| SAS 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SAS 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SAS 20.6% · Draw 22.7% · NAP 56.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Napoli at 57% — Sassuolo concede 1.9 per game, and the model sees that.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.1 vs 2.0 leaves little room for Sassuolo to force this open.
THE CAVEAT
Sassuolo are on a 5-match losing streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
ON A SKID · SAS5 losses in a row
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
TEAM NEWS
Sassuolo
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Napoli
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 16 Nov
Meniscus Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Ankle Injury · Expected back 31 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.560%
OVER 3.538%
BTTS59%
SAS CLEAN SHEET14%
NAP CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SAS
NAP
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SAS
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–3 to Roma last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5NAP
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
SAS
1.27
LEAGUE1.31
NAP
1.55
NAP scores +0.28 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SAS
1.90
LEAGUE1.31
NAP
1.04
NAP concedes 0.86 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SAS
17th
Hovering above relegation on 8 points.
NAP
10th
Mid-table on 15 points.
NAP sit 7 places higher in the table
