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Atalanta vs Inter
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:03 UTC · 9 NovATA 22%Draw 22%INT 56%
Expected goals · ATA 1.2 · INT 2.1 · 3.3 total
INT's attack (1.65x the league average) against ATA's defence (1.04x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.9.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ATA's win chance, the blue ones for INT's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ATA goals | INT 0 | INT 1 | INT 2 | INT 3 | INT 4 | INT 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATA 0 | 4% | 7% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| ATA 1 | 4% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| ATA 2 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| ATA 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ATA 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ATA 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ATA 21.6% · Draw 22.1% · INT 56.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Internazionale should control this — 56% win probability and 2.3 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Internazionale are averaging 2.3 per game at away — the gap in quality shows in the numbers.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
ATA
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Atalanta
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Finger · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Internazionale
Illness · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 24 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 25 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.585%
OVER 2.564%
OVER 3.542%
BTTS63%
ATA CLEAN SHEET12%
INT CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ATA
INT
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ATA
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2INT
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
ATA
1.57
LEAGUE1.31
INT
2.32
INT scores +0.75 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ATA
1.27
LEAGUE1.31
INT
1.00
INT concedes 0.27 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
ATA
12th
Mid-table on 14 points.
INT
2nd
In the Champions League places on 28 points.
INT sit 10 places higher in the table
