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Monza vs Fiorentina
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:42 UTC · 11 NovMNZ 28%Draw 25%FIO 47%
Expected goals · MNZ 1.3 · FIO 1.7 · 3.0 total
FIO's attack (1.13x the league average) against MNZ's defence (1.24x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MNZ's win chance, the blue ones for FIO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MNZ goals | FIO 0 | FIO 1 | FIO 2 | FIO 3 | FIO 4 | FIO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNZ 0 | 6% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| MNZ 1 | 6% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| MNZ 2 | 4% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MNZ 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| MNZ 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MNZ 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MNZ 28.1% · Draw 25.2% · FIO 46.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Fiorentina have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 37% of outcomes — 1-1 at 12% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MNZ
3-4-2-1FIO
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Monza
Knock Injury · Could return, due 22 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 24 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Fiorentina
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.535%
BTTS60%
MNZ CLEAN SHEET18%
FIO CLEAN SHEET28%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MNZ
FIO
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MNZ
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Atalanta last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4FIO
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.31SCORED · PER 90
MNZ
0.96
LEAGUE1.31
FIO
1.35
FIO scores +0.39 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MNZ
1.88
LEAGUE1.31
FIO
1.56
FIO concedes 0.32 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MNZ
18th
In the relegation zone on 7 points.
FIO
15th
Hovering above relegation on 9 points.
FIO sit 3 places higher in the table
