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Sudtirol vs Mantova
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 09:52 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SUD 35%Draw 31%MAN 34%
Expected goals · SUD 1.1 · MAN 1.1 · 2.2 total
Expected goals are close (1.1 vs 1.1) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SUD's win chance, the blue ones for MAN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SUD goals | MAN 0 | MAN 1 | MAN 2 | MAN 3 | MAN 4 | MAN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUD 0 | 13% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SUD 1 | 12% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SUD 2 | 7% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUD 3 | 2% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUD 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUD 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SUD 34.8% · Draw 31.2% · MAN 34.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
This looks level with over 2.5 goals at 36% — open but no clear winner.
THE ANGLE
The draw at 31% is the single most likely outcome — scoreline distribution keeps returning to 1-1.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.564%
OVER 2.536%
OVER 3.517%
BTTS44%
SUD CLEAN SHEET34%
MAN CLEAN SHEET34%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SUD
MAN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SUD
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2MAN
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
SUD
1.12
LEAGUE1.29
MAN
1.28
MAN scores +0.16 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SUD
1.30
LEAGUE1.29
MAN
1.32
Defences level on season average
