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Modena vs Padova
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:43 UTC · 15 NovMOD 53%Draw 27%PAD 20%
Expected goals · MOD 1.6 · PAD 0.8 · 2.4 total
MOD's attack (1.03x the league average) against PAD's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MOD's win chance, the blue ones for PAD's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MOD goals | PAD 0 | PAD 1 | PAD 2 | PAD 3 | PAD 4 | PAD 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOD 0 | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOD 1 | 13% | 13% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOD 2 | 11% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOD 3 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOD 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MOD 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MOD 53.2% · Draw 27.0% · PAD 19.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Modena edge this at 53% — expected goals of 1.6 to 0.9 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 46% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-0 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.570%
OVER 2.543%
OVER 3.522%
BTTS46%
MOD CLEAN SHEET43%
PAD CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MOD
PAD
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MOD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
10
points · W3 D1 L1PAD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
MOD
1.36
LEAGUE1.29
PAD
1.07
MOD scores +0.29 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MOD
1.00
LEAGUE1.29
PAD
1.25
MOD concedes 0.25 fewer per 90