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Empoli vs Verona
28 Nov · 14:00 UTC
Stadio Carlo Castellani - Computer Gross Arena
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 14:12 UTC · 15 NovEMP 27%Draw 27%VER 46%
Expected goals · EMP 1.1 · VER 1.6 · 2.7 total
VER's attack (1.06x the league average) against EMP's defence (1.27x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for EMP's win chance, the blue ones for VER's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| EMP goals | VER 0 | VER 1 | VER 2 | VER 3 | VER 4 | VER 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMP 0 | 8% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| EMP 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| EMP 2 | 4% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| EMP 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| EMP 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| EMP 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
EMP 26.9% · Draw 26.6% · VER 46.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Hellas Verona have the edge at 46% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Single-goal margins account for 38% of outcomes — 1-1 at 13% is the model's best guess.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Empoli
No absences reported.
Hellas Verona
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Sprained Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS54%
EMP CLEAN SHEET21%
VER CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
EMP
VER
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
EMP
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2VER
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
3
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
EMP
1.12
LEAGUE1.29
VER
1.71
VER scores +0.59 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
EMP
1.58
LEAGUE1.29
VER
1.14
VER concedes 0.44 fewer per 90
