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Padova vs Sampdoria
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 21:11 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
PAD 43%Draw 31%SAM 27%
Expected goals · PAD 1.2 · SAM 0.9 · 2.1 total
PAD's attack (0.82x, below the league average) against SAM's defence (1.05x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for PAD's win chance, the blue ones for SAM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| PAD goals | SAM 0 | SAM 1 | SAM 2 | SAM 3 | SAM 4 | SAM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAD 0 | 12% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| PAD 1 | 14% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| PAD 2 | 9% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PAD 3 | 4% | 3% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PAD 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PAD 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
PAD 42.6% · Draw 30.6% · SAM 26.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Padova are favoured at 43% but the draw at 31% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 43% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 14% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
PAD
3-5-2Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Sampdoria
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 30 Nov
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.564%
OVER 2.536%
OVER 3.517%
BTTS43%
PAD CLEAN SHEET40%
SAM CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
PAD
SAM
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
PAD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1SAM
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
PAD
1.07
LEAGUE1.29
SAM
0.99
PAD scores +0.08 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
PAD
1.25
LEAGUE1.29
SAM
1.34
PAD concedes 0.09 fewer per 90