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Cesena vs Ascoli
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:28 UTC · 12 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
CES 29%Draw 28%ASC 43%
Expected goals · CES 1.1 · ASC 1.4 · 2.5 total
ASC's attack (1.19x the league average) against CES's defence (1.02x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CES's win chance, the blue ones for ASC's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CES goals | ASC 0 | ASC 1 | ASC 2 | ASC 3 | ASC 4 | ASC 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CES 0 | 9% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| CES 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| CES 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| CES 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CES 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CES 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CES 29.2% · Draw 28.1% · ASC 42.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Ascoli have the edge at 43% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Ascoli are favoured but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CES
4-3-3Massimiliano Mangraviti · Jacopo Gelli · Andrea Ciofi · Mihajlo Ilić
Gianluca Frabotta · Riccardo Pagano · Dimitri Bisoli · Xavello Druiventak
Bench · 12
Bohinen, Guidi, D'Andrea, Francesconi, Vecchia, Piacentini +6
Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.572%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.524%
BTTS51%
CES CLEAN SHEET25%
ASC CLEAN SHEET33%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CES
ASC
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CES
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1ASC
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
CES
1.14
LEAGUE1.29
ASC
1.43
ASC scores +0.29 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CES
1.39
LEAGUE1.29
ASC
0.67
ASC concedes 0.72 fewer per 90