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Sudtirol vs Cremonese
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:58 UTC · 11 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
SUD 29%Draw 30%CRE 41%
Expected goals · SUD 1.0 · CRE 1.3 · 2.3 total
CRE's attack (1.22x the league average) against SUD's defence (0.90x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SUD's win chance, the blue ones for CRE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SUD goals | CRE 0 | CRE 1 | CRE 2 | CRE 3 | CRE 4 | CRE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUD 0 | 11% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SUD 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| SUD 2 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| SUD 3 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUD 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SUD 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SUD 28.8% · Draw 29.9% · CRE 41.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Cremonese have the edge at 41% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Cremonese are favoured but the draw at 30% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Cremonese
Unknown · Could return, due 20 Nov
Unknown · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.567%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS46%
SUD CLEAN SHEET28%
CRE CLEAN SHEET36%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SUD
CRE
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SUD
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W0 D3 L2CRE
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
SUD
1.12
LEAGUE1.29
CRE
1.48
CRE scores +0.36 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SUD
1.30
LEAGUE1.29
CRE
1.07
CRE concedes 0.23 fewer per 90
