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Verona vs Cesena
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 23:50 UTC · 9 NovVER 62%Draw 23%CES 15%
Expected goals · VER 1.9 · CES 0.8 · 2.7 total
VER's attack (1.28x the league average) against CES's defence (1.03x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for VER's win chance, the blue ones for CES's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| VER goals | CES 0 | CES 1 | CES 2 | CES 3 | CES 4 | CES 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VER 0 | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VER 1 | 12% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VER 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VER 3 | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| VER 4 | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VER 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
VER 62.4% · Draw 22.9% · CES 14.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Hellas Verona are strong favourites at 62% — expected goals of 1.9 vs 0.8 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Hellas Verona scoring 1.7/game at home, Cesena scoring 1.1/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
VER
4-3-3Andrias Edmundsson · Tobias Slotsager · Gabriele Zappa
Martin Frese · Andrea Le Borgne · Edoardo Iannoni · Antoine Bernede · Kacper Sezonienko
Bench · 12
Mosquera, Dawidowicz, Mulattieri, Harroui, Leali, Bradarić +6
Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Hellas Verona
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Sprained Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.576%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS48%
VER CLEAN SHEET45%
CES CLEAN SHEET15%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
VER
CES
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
VER
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
3
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0CES
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
VER
1.71
LEAGUE1.29
CES
1.14
VER scores +0.57 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
VER
1.14
LEAGUE1.29
CES
1.39
VER concedes 0.25 fewer per 90
