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Carrarese vs Virtus Entella
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 08:38 UTC · 10 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
CAR 42%Draw 33%ENT 25%
Expected goals · CAR 1.1 · ENT 0.8 · 1.9 total
CAR's attack (0.85x, below the league average) against ENT's defence (0.93x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for CAR's win chance, the blue ones for ENT's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| CAR goals | ENT 0 | ENT 1 | ENT 2 | ENT 3 | ENT 4 | ENT 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR 0 | 15% | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 1 | 16% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 2 | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 3 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| CAR 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
CAR 42.4% · Draw 32.5% · ENT 25.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.1%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Carrarese have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Scoreline distribution weights toward single-goal outcomes — 1-0 and 0-0 combined cover 31% of likely results.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
CAR
3-5-2ENT
3-5-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.558%
OVER 2.530%
OVER 3.513%
BTTS38%
CAR CLEAN SHEET45%
ENT CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
CAR
ENT
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
CAR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
6
points · W2 D0 L3ENT
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–2 last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
CAR
1.04
LEAGUE1.29
ENT
0.97
CAR scores +0.07 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
CAR
1.37
LEAGUE1.29
ENT
1.28
ENT concedes 0.09 fewer per 90