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US Avellino vs Mantova
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 13:54 UTC · 13 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
AVE 44%Draw 28%MAN 28%
Expected goals · AVE 1.4 · MAN 1.1 · 2.5 total
AVE's attack (1.04x the league average) against MAN's defence (0.96x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for AVE's win chance, the blue ones for MAN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| AVE goals | MAN 0 | MAN 1 | MAN 2 | MAN 3 | MAN 4 | MAN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVE 0 | 9% | 8% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| AVE 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| AVE 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| AVE 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| AVE 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AVE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
AVE 43.9% · Draw 28.0% · MAN 28.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
US Avellino are favoured at 44% but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
BTTS at 51% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
AVE
3-5-2Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.572%
OVER 2.546%
OVER 3.525%
BTTS51%
AVE CLEAN SHEET34%
MAN CLEAN SHEET24%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
AVE
MAN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
AVE
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1MAN
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
5
points · W1 D2 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
AVE
1.19
LEAGUE1.29
MAN
1.28
MAN scores +0.09 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
AVE
1.28
LEAGUE1.29
MAN
1.32
Defences level on season average