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Arezzo vs Padova
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 20:15 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
ARE 30%Draw 30%PAD 40%
Expected goals · ARE 1.0 · PAD 1.2 · 2.2 total
PAD's attack (0.87x, below the league average) against ARE's defence (1.22x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ARE's win chance, the blue ones for PAD's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ARE goals | PAD 0 | PAD 1 | PAD 2 | PAD 3 | PAD 4 | PAD 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARE 0 | 11% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| ARE 1 | 10% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| ARE 2 | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| ARE 3 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| ARE 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ARE 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ARE 30.3% · Draw 30.0% · PAD 39.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 40% for the slight favourite, 30% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 40% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
Predicted line-up
SIGNALS
OVER 1.567%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.519%
BTTS47%
ARE CLEAN SHEET29%
PAD CLEAN SHEET35%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ARE
PAD
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ARE
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3PAD
UNBEATEN
4
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.29SCORED · PER 90
ARE
0.79
LEAGUE1.29
PAD
1.07
PAD scores +0.28 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ARE
1.77
LEAGUE1.29
PAD
1.25
PAD concedes 0.52 fewer per 90