| Minute | Side | Scorer | Score after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19' | home | Matteo Brunori Sandri | 1-0 |
| 55' | away | Filippo Ranocchia | 1-1 |
Win probability from OneTouch's in-running model (CC-LIVE-1.2+prior): score and clock only, from our pre-match call. Not xG.
Forecast Verdict
Top pick missedWe said
Model at kick-off: ASC 47% · Draw 25% · PAL 29%
Actual
OneTouch Forecast · dc-v2.0
It finished level; our pre-match call put the chance of that at 27%. Palermo had more shots (18–10) and more on target (5–3).
Pre-match call frozen 6 Nov 2026 · model dc-v2.0
Tactical shift
Matteo Brunori Sandri
19'
1–0
Don Bolsius
On for Gennaro Acampora
26'
Filippo Ranocchia
On for Dominic Vavassori
45'
Filippo Ranocchia
55'
1–1
Sergiu Perciun
On for Tommaso Milanese
61'
Giacomo De Pieri
On for Andrea Silipo
62'
Luca Mazzitelli
On for Jacopo Segre
63'
Alessandro Gabrielloni
On for Joel Pohjanpalo
72'
Nahuel Estévez
Booked
75'
Mohammed Amine Chakir
On for Simone D'Uffizi
75'
Giangiacomo Magnani
On for Nahuel Estévez
77'
Ratings are out of 10. marks an OneTouch estimate, not a confirmed grade. Tap a player for details.
28 shots
Expected goals over time
accuracy · 30%
kill rate · 10%
accuracy · 28%
kill rate · 6%
Ascoli turned 10% of shots into goals to Palermo's 6%.
Shots on Target
Attack
xG · BSD
Head to Head
League Standing
Serie BKey context
Venue
Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Kick-off
6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
Referee
Antonio Rapuano
Italy · 2.4 yellows/match
Arena 3D
Pitch-level coverage: the ball follows the real on-pitch action.
