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Fenerbahce vs Erzurum BB
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:09 UTC · 15 NovFEN 71%Draw 17%ERZ 12%
Expected goals · FEN 2.6 · ERZ 1.0 · 3.6 total
FEN's attack (1.61x the league average) against ERZ's defence (1.02x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for FEN's win chance, the blue ones for ERZ's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| FEN goals | ERZ 0 | ERZ 1 | ERZ 2 | ERZ 3 | ERZ 4 | ERZ 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEN 0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEN 1 | 7% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEN 2 | 10% | 9% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEN 3 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEN 4 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| FEN 5 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
FEN 71.5% · Draw 16.9% · ERZ 11.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (4.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Fenerbahce should control this — 71% win probability and 2.6 goals per game say the edge is clear.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Fenerbahce scoring 2.6/game at home, Erzurum BB scoring 0.9/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
FEN
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Fenerbahce
Fa charge of improper conduct · Could return, due 21 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.587%
OVER 2.569%
OVER 3.548%
BTTS58%
FEN CLEAN SHEET38%
ERZ CLEAN SHEET8%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
FEN
ERZ
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
FEN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2ERZ
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 1–2 last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
FEN
2.65
LEAGUE1.40
ERZ
0.94
FEN scores +1.71 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
FEN
0.89
LEAGUE1.40
ERZ
1.51
FEN concedes 0.62 fewer per 90