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Kocaelispor vs Fenerbahce
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 16:19 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
KOC 28%Draw 30%FEN 42%
Expected goals · KOC 1.0 · FEN 1.3 · 2.3 total
FEN's attack (1.40x the league average) against KOC's defence (0.75x, tighter than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KOC's win chance, the blue ones for FEN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KOC goals | FEN 0 | FEN 1 | FEN 2 | FEN 3 | FEN 4 | FEN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KOC 0 | 11% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| KOC 1 | 9% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| KOC 2 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KOC 3 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KOC 4 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| KOC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KOC 28.4% · Draw 29.6% · FEN 42.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Fenerbahce have the edge at 42% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Fenerbahce are favoured but the draw at 30% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KOC
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Fenerbahce
Fa charge of improper conduct · Could return, due 21 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Achilles Tendon Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 20 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.568%
OVER 2.540%
OVER 3.520%
BTTS47%
KOC CLEAN SHEET28%
FEN CLEAN SHEET36%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
KOC
FEN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
KOC
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2FEN
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W3 D0 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
KOC
1.19
LEAGUE1.40
FEN
2.65
FEN scores +1.46 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
KOC
0.81
LEAGUE1.40
FEN
0.89
KOC concedes 0.08 fewer per 90
