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Expected goals · KNY 0.9 · BES 1.4 · 2.3 total
BES's attack (1.11x the league average) against KNY's defence (1.02x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for KNY's win chance, the blue ones for BES's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| KNY goals | BES 0 | BES 1 | BES 2 | BES 3 | BES 4 | BES 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNY 0 | 11% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| KNY 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| KNY 2 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| KNY 3 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| KNY 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| KNY 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
KNY 24.0% · Draw 28.7% · BES 47.3%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Besiktas have the edge at 47% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
BTTS at 46% suggests both attacks will find the net — 1-1 at 13% sits at the top of the scoreline distribution.
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
KNY
4-2-3-1BES
4-1-4-1Predicted line-up
Shoulder Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Wrist · Expected back 10 Dec
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
how each side performs at their ground
BES scores +1.56 more per 90
BES concedes 0.17 fewer per 90
Photo: Hüseyin Öcal, CC BY 3.0