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Expected goals · TRA 3.7 · EYU 0.5 · 4.2 total
TRA's attack (1.46x the league average) against EYU's defence (1.64x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 3.2.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for TRA's win chance, the blue ones for EYU's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| TRA goals | EYU 0 | EYU 1 | EYU 2 | EYU 3 | EYU 4 | EYU 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRA 0 | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRA 1 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRA 2 | 11% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRA 3 | 13% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRA 4 | 13% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TRA 5 | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
TRA 92.8% · Draw 5.6% · EYU 1.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (16.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Trabzonspor should control this — 93% win probability and 2.4 goals per game say the edge is clear.
Expected goals of 3.8 vs 0.5 leaves little room for Eyupspor to force this open.
Trabzonspor are on a 5-match winning streak — momentum often defies the long-term averages used here.
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
TRA
4-3-3Sidny Lopes Cabral · Chibuike Nwaiwu · Stefan Savić · Wagner Pina
Melih Kabasakal · Fabinho · Ozan Tufan · Noah Saviolo · Mohamed Salah
Bench · 12
Özkaçar, Bouchouari, Mendy, Akaydın, Eskihellaç, Güren +6
Predicted line-up
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
how each side performs at their ground
TRA scores +2.11 more per 90
TRA concedes 2.06 fewer per 90
Photo: Beri61, CC BY-SA 4.0