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Gibraltar vs Malta
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
GIB 34%Draw 28%MLT 39%
Expected goals · GIB 1.2 · MLT 1.4 · 2.6 total
MLT's attack (1.18x the league average) against GIB's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GIB's win chance, the blue ones for MLT's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GIB goals | MLT 0 | MLT 1 | MLT 2 | MLT 3 | MLT 4 | MLT 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIB 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GIB 1 | 8% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| GIB 2 | 6% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| GIB 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GIB 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GIB 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GIB 33.6% · Draw 27.8% · MLT 38.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
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OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 28% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 39%.
THE ANGLE
Both defences have been solid enough to make this tight — combined expected goals under 2.6 leaves narrow margins.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 39% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS54%
GIB CLEAN SHEET26%
MLT CLEAN SHEET29%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GIB
MLT
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GIB
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–2 to Andorra last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
6
points · W1 D3 L1MLT
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
GIB
1.25
LEAGUE1.30
MLT
1.35
MLT scores +0.11 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GIB
1.35
LEAGUE1.30
MLT
1.25
MLT concedes 0.11 fewer per 90