Cookies: one sign-in cookie. Analytics only if you accept. Cookie policy
Iceland vs Luxembourg
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovISL 72%Draw 19%LUX 8%
Expected goals · ISL 2.0 · LUX 0.5 · 2.5 total
ISL's attack (1.42x the league average) against LUX's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for ISL's win chance, the blue ones for LUX's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| ISL goals | LUX 0 | LUX 1 | LUX 2 | LUX 3 | LUX 4 | LUX 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISL 0 | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ISL 1 | 15% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ISL 2 | 16% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ISL 3 | 11% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ISL 4 | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ISL 5 | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
ISL 72.3% · Draw 19.4% · LUX 8.2%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Iceland are strong favourites at 72% — expected goals of 2.1 vs 0.5 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Scoreline distribution points to a comfortable win — Iceland to score 2+ sits at 61%.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 72% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS37%
ISL CLEAN SHEET58%
LUX CLEAN SHEET13%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
ISL
LUX
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
ISL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
4
games without concedingLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0LUX
LOSING RUN
4
Lost 0–1 to Estonia last outGOAL DROUGHT
4
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
ISL
2.05
LEAGUE1.30
LUX
0.55
ISL scores +1.50 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
ISL
0.55
LEAGUE1.30
LUX
2.05
ISL concedes 1.50 fewer per 90