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Estonia vs Bulgaria
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovEST 46%Draw 27%BUL 27%
Expected goals · EST 1.5 · BUL 1.1 · 2.6 total
EST's attack (1.04x the league average) against BUL's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for EST's win chance, the blue ones for BUL's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| EST goals | BUL 0 | BUL 1 | BUL 2 | BUL 3 | BUL 4 | BUL 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EST 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| EST 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| EST 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| EST 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| EST 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| EST 5 | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
EST 45.9% · Draw 27.2% · BUL 26.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
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Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Estonia are favoured at 46% but the draw at 27% is too high to ignore.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.5 vs 1.1 gives Estonia the edge but leaves room for Bulgaria to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 46% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS53%
EST CLEAN SHEET33%
BUL CLEAN SHEET22%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
EST
BUL
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
EST
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
4
games without concedingLAST 5
9
points · W2 D3 L0BUL
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–5 to Iceland last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
EST
1.50
LEAGUE1.30
BUL
1.10
EST scores +0.41 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
EST
1.10
LEAGUE1.30
BUL
1.50
EST concedes 0.41 fewer per 90