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Germany vs Netherlands
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
GER 40%Draw 28%NED 32%
Expected goals · GER 1.4 · NED 1.2 · 2.6 total
GER's attack (0.95x, below the league average) against NED's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GER's win chance, the blue ones for NED's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GER goals | NED 0 | NED 1 | NED 2 | NED 3 | NED 4 | NED 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GER 0 | 8% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| GER 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| GER 2 | 7% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| GER 3 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GER 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GER 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GER 39.8% · Draw 27.8% · NED 32.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 28% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 40%.
THE ANGLE
Both defences have been solid enough to make this tight — combined expected goals under 2.6 leaves narrow margins.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 40% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS54%
GER CLEAN SHEET30%
NED CLEAN SHEET25%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GER
NED
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GER
UNBEATEN
3
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1NED
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
GER
1.38
LEAGUE1.30
NED
1.22
GER scores +0.16 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GER
1.22
LEAGUE1.30
NED
1.38
GER concedes 0.16 fewer per 90