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North Macedonia vs Slovenia
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
MKD 29%Draw 28%SVN 43%
Expected goals · MKD 1.1 · SVN 1.5 · 2.6 total
SVN's attack (1.26x the league average) against MKD's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.4.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MKD's win chance, the blue ones for SVN's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MKD goals | SVN 0 | SVN 1 | SVN 2 | SVN 3 | SVN 4 | SVN 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKD 0 | 8% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| MKD 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| MKD 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| MKD 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MKD 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MKD 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MKD 29.1% · Draw 27.5% · SVN 43.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Slovenia edge this at 43% — expected goals of 1.1 to 1.5 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Slovenia are favoured but the draw at 28% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 43% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS53%
MKD CLEAN SHEET23%
SVN CLEAN SHEET32%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MKD
SVN
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MKD
LOSING RUN
5
Lost 1–2 to Scotland last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5SVN
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
MKD
1.15
LEAGUE1.30
SVN
1.45
SVN scores +0.31 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MKD
1.45
LEAGUE1.30
SVN
1.15
SVN concedes 0.31 fewer per 90