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Greece vs Serbia
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovGRE 53%Draw 26%SRB 21%
Expected goals · GRE 1.6 · SRB 1.0 · 2.6 total
GRE's attack (1.13x the league average) against SRB's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for GRE's win chance, the blue ones for SRB's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| GRE goals | SRB 0 | SRB 1 | SRB 2 | SRB 3 | SRB 4 | SRB 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRE 0 | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRE 1 | 11% | 12% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| GRE 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRE 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRE 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GRE 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
GRE 52.6% · Draw 26.0% · SRB 21.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.7%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Greece edge this at 53% — expected goals of 1.6 to 1.0 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Greece are favoured but the draw at 26% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 53% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS50%
GRE CLEAN SHEET38%
SRB CLEAN SHEET19%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
GRE
SRB
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
GRE
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–7 to Netherlands last outGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1SRB
LOSING RUN
5
Lost 1–3 to Germany last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
0
points · W0 D0 L5VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
GRE
1.64
LEAGUE1.30
SRB
0.96
GRE scores +0.68 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
GRE
0.96
LEAGUE1.30
SRB
1.64
GRE concedes 0.68 fewer per 90