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Wales vs Portugal
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovWAL 11%Draw 22%POR 67%
Expected goals · WAL 0.7 · POR 1.9 · 2.6 total
POR's attack (1.68x the league average) against WAL's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WAL's win chance, the blue ones for POR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WAL goals | POR 0 | POR 1 | POR 2 | POR 3 | POR 4 | POR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAL 0 | 8% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 4% | 2% |
| WAL 1 | 4% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| WAL 2 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| WAL 3 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WAL 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| WAL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WAL 11.5% · Draw 21.7% · POR 66.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
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TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS42%
WAL CLEAN SHEET14%
POR CLEAN SHEET51%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WAL
POR
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WAL
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–3 to Norway last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4POR
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–4 to Denmark last outSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
12
points · W4 D0 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
WAL
0.67
LEAGUE1.30
POR
1.93
POR scores +1.26 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WAL
1.93
LEAGUE1.30
POR
0.67
POR concedes 1.26 fewer per 90