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Ukraine vs Georgia
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovUKR 54%Draw 26%GEO 20%
Expected goals · UKR 1.7 · GEO 0.9 · 2.6 total
UKR's attack (1.15x the league average) against GEO's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.8.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for UKR's win chance, the blue ones for GEO's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| UKR goals | GEO 0 | GEO 1 | GEO 2 | GEO 3 | GEO 4 | GEO 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UKR 0 | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| UKR 1 | 12% | 12% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| UKR 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| UKR 3 | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| UKR 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UKR 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
UKR 53.9% · Draw 25.7% · GEO 20.4%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.8%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Ukraine edge this at 54% — expected goals of 1.7 to 0.9 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Scoreline distribution weights toward single-goal outcomes — 1-1 and 1-0 combined cover 24% of likely results.
THE CAVEAT
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 54% as a wider range than usual.
INTERNATIONALNational-team rating forecast
TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS50%
UKR CLEAN SHEET39%
GEO CLEAN SHEET19%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
UKR
GEO
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
UKR
LOSING RUN
3
Lost 0–1 to Northern Ireland last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3GEO
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 0–2 to Hungary last outGOAL DROUGHT
5
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
2
points · W0 D2 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
UKR
1.67
LEAGUE1.30
GEO
0.93
UKR scores +0.73 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
UKR
0.93
LEAGUE1.30
GEO
1.67
UKR concedes 0.73 fewer per 90