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Expected goals · IRL 1.8 · KOS 0.8 · 2.6 total
IRL's attack (1.24x the league average) against KOS's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for IRL's win chance, the blue ones for KOS's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| IRL goals | KOS 0 | KOS 1 | KOS 2 | KOS 3 | KOS 4 | KOS 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRL 0 | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| IRL 1 | 13% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| IRL 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| IRL 3 | 7% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| IRL 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| IRL 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
IRL 60.6% · Draw 23.9% · KOS 15.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.0%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Republic of Ireland are strong favourites at 61% — expected goals of 1.8 vs 0.8 reflect the gap.
Scoreline distribution points to a comfortable win — Republic of Ireland to score 2+ sits at 54%.
This is an international fixture — the forecast is built from a national-team rating rather than club league form, so treat 61% as a wider range than usual.
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
how each side performs at their ground
IRL scores +1.00 more per 90
IRL concedes 1.00 fewer per 90