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Poland vs Sweden
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:50 UTC · 15 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
POL 31%Draw 28%SWE 41%
Expected goals · POL 1.2 · SWE 1.4 · 2.6 total
SWE's attack (1.22x the league average) against POL's defence (1.00x, about the league average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for POL's win chance, the blue ones for SWE's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| POL goals | SWE 0 | SWE 1 | SWE 2 | SWE 3 | SWE 4 | SWE 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POL 0 | 8% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| POL 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| POL 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| POL 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| POL 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| POL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
POL 31.4% · Draw 27.7% · SWE 40.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.4%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model intl-elo-v1.2
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TEAM SHEETS
Predicted XI released around an hour before kickoff
SIGNALS
OVER 1.574%
OVER 2.548%
OVER 3.526%
BTTS53%
POL CLEAN SHEET25%
SWE CLEAN SHEET30%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
POL
SWE
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
POL
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 1–2 to Romania last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3SWE
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
13
points · W4 D1 L0VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.30SCORED · PER 90
POL
1.20
LEAGUE1.30
SWE
1.40
SWE scores +0.20 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
POL
1.40
LEAGUE1.30
SWE
1.20
SWE concedes 0.20 fewer per 90