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Derby County vs Watford
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 00:25 UTC · 15 NovDER 49%Draw 27%WAT 24%
Expected goals · DER 1.5 · WAT 1.0 · 2.5 total
DER's attack (0.86x, below the league average) against WAT's defence (1.20x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.5.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for DER's win chance, the blue ones for WAT's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| DER goals | WAT 0 | WAT 1 | WAT 2 | WAT 3 | WAT 4 | WAT 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DER 0 | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| DER 1 | 11% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| DER 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| DER 3 | 5% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| DER 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| DER 5 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
DER 48.9% · Draw 27.0% · WAT 24.1%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Derby County edge this at 49% — expected goals of 1.5 to 1.0 give them the lean.
THE ANGLE
Derby County's home advantage is the separator — they score 1.3/game there, Watford concede 1.6/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
DER
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Derby County
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Watford
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Thigh Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.573%
OVER 2.547%
OVER 3.525%
BTTS51%
DER CLEAN SHEET36%
WAT CLEAN SHEET21%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
DER
WAT
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
DER
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3WAT
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
2
games without concedingLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
DER
1.26
LEAGUE1.35
WAT
0.94
DER scores +0.32 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
DER
1.66
LEAGUE1.35
WAT
1.56
WAT concedes 0.10 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
DER
23rd
In the relegation zone on 10 points.
WAT
20th
Hovering above relegation on 15 points.
WAT sit 3 places higher in the table
