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Wolverhampton vs Derby County
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 17:26 UTC · 12 NovWOL 63%Draw 21%DER 16%
Expected goals · WOL 2.1 · DER 1.0 · 3.1 total
WOL's attack (1.17x the league average) against DER's defence (1.22x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.1.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for WOL's win chance, the blue ones for DER's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| WOL goals | DER 0 | DER 1 | DER 2 | DER 3 | DER 4 | DER 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOL 0 | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WOL 1 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WOL 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| WOL 3 | 7% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WOL 4 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| WOL 5 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
WOL 63.4% · Draw 21.0% · DER 15.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (2.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Wolverhampton Wanderers are strong favourites at 63% — expected goals of 2.1 vs 1.0 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Derby County concede 1.7 per game on the model's weighted record, and Wolverhampton Wanderers's most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
WOL
4-2-3-1DER
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 25 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 25 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Derby County
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.582%
OVER 2.560%
OVER 3.537%
BTTS55%
WOL CLEAN SHEET38%
DER CLEAN SHEET12%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
WOL
DER
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
WOL
UNBEATEN
5
games without defeatSCORING
5
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
11
points · W3 D2 L0DER
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
WOL
1.64
LEAGUE1.35
DER
1.26
WOL scores +0.38 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
WOL
1.17
LEAGUE1.35
DER
1.66
WOL concedes 0.49 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
WOL
4th
In the promotion play-off places on 28 points.
DER
23rd
In the relegation zone on 10 points.
WOL sit 19 places higher in the table
