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Middlesbrough vs Swansea City
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 15:37 UTC · 13 NovMID 59%Draw 23%SWA 18%
Expected goals · MID 2.0 · SWA 1.0 · 3.0 total
MID's attack (1.22x the league average) against SWA's defence (1.08x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.0.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for MID's win chance, the blue ones for SWA's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| MID goals | SWA 0 | SWA 1 | SWA 2 | SWA 3 | SWA 4 | SWA 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MID 0 | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 1 | 9% | 11% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 2 | 10% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 3 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 4 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| MID 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
MID 58.7% · Draw 22.8% · SWA 18.5%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Middlesbrough are strong favourites at 59% — expected goals of 2.0 vs 1.0 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Home/away split tells the story: Middlesbrough scoring 1.7/game at home, Swansea City scoring 1.3/game on the road.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
MID
4-2-3-1SWA
4-3-3Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Middlesbrough
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 15 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Swansea City
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Suspended · Red card · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Cruciate Ligament Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.557%
OVER 3.535%
BTTS56%
MID CLEAN SHEET36%
SWA CLEAN SHEET14%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
MID
SWA
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
MID
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatGOAL DROUGHT
2
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
1
games without concedingLAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1SWA
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to Birmingham last outSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
3
points · W1 D0 L4VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
MID
1.73
LEAGUE1.35
SWA
1.30
MID scores +0.43 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
MID
1.14
LEAGUE1.35
SWA
1.35
MID concedes 0.21 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
MID
2nd
In the automatic promotion places on 29 points.
SWA
6th
In the promotion play-off places on 26 points.
MID sit 4 places higher in the table