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Bristol City vs Wrexham
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 19:52 UTC · 11 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BRC 31%Draw 29%WXM 40%
Expected goals · BRC 1.1 · WXM 1.3 · 2.4 total
WXM's attack (0.92x, below the league average) against BRC's defence (1.16x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.2.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BRC's win chance, the blue ones for WXM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BRC goals | WXM 0 | WXM 1 | WXM 2 | WXM 3 | WXM 4 | WXM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRC 0 | 10% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BRC 1 | 9% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| BRC 2 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| BRC 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BRC 4 | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BRC 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BRC 31.1% · Draw 29.2% · WXM 39.8%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
The draw at 29% is the most likely single outcome — neither side is above 40%.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 43% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BRC
4-2-3-1WXM
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Bristol City
No absences reported.
Wrexham
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 23 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.570%
OVER 2.543%
OVER 3.522%
BTTS49%
BRC CLEAN SHEET28%
WXM CLEAN SHEET33%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BRC
WXM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BRC
LOSING RUN
2
Lost 0–5 to Norwich last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 3LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3WXM
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BRC
1.31
LEAGUE1.35
WXM
1.39
WXM scores +0.08 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
BRC
1.43
LEAGUE1.35
WXM
1.26
WXM concedes 0.17 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BRC
17th
Mid-table on 18 points.
WXM
15th
Mid-table on 18 points.
WXM sit 2 places higher in the table
