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Southampton vs Derby County
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 06:19 UTC · 9 NovSOU 72%Draw 17%DER 11%
Expected goals · SOU 2.5 · DER 0.9 · 3.4 total
SOU's attack (1.39x the league average) against DER's defence (1.22x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 1.6.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for SOU's win chance, the blue ones for DER's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| SOU goals | DER 0 | DER 1 | DER 2 | DER 3 | DER 4 | DER 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOU 0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 1 | 8% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 2 | 10% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 3 | 9% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 4 | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| SOU 5 | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
SOU 72.4% · Draw 16.9% · DER 10.7%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (4.3%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Southampton are strong favourites at 72% — expected goals of 2.5 vs 0.9 reflect the gap.
THE ANGLE
Derby County concede 1.7 per game on the model's weighted record, and Southampton's most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
SOU
4-2-3-1DER
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Southampton
Muscle Injury · Expected back 23 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Derby County
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 19 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 20 Nov
Calf Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Groin Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.586%
OVER 2.566%
OVER 3.544%
BTTS55%
SOU CLEAN SHEET41%
DER CLEAN SHEET8%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
SOU
DER
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
SOU
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 0–1 to Preston last outGOAL DROUGHT
1
games without scoringCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 4LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1DER
UNBEATEN
1
games without defeatSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
SOU
1.79
LEAGUE1.35
DER
1.26
SOU scores +0.53 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
SOU
1.05
LEAGUE1.35
DER
1.66
SOU concedes 0.61 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
SOU
8th
Mid-table on 24 points.
DER
23rd
In the relegation zone on 10 points.
SOU sit 15 places higher in the table