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Lincoln City vs Wrexham
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 07:10 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
LCN 35%Draw 27%WXM 38%
Expected goals · LCN 1.3 · WXM 1.4 · 2.7 total
Expected goals are close (1.3 vs 1.4) — the model reads this as an evenly matched attack-defence balance.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for LCN's win chance, the blue ones for WXM's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| LCN goals | WXM 0 | WXM 1 | WXM 2 | WXM 3 | WXM 4 | WXM 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LCN 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| LCN 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| LCN 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| LCN 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| LCN 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LCN 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
LCN 35.0% · Draw 27.0% · WXM 38.0%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.5%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Neither team separates themselves here — 38% for the slight favourite, 27% for the draw.
THE ANGLE
Over 2.5 probability at 52% suggests goals but no clear winner — this looks like a 1-1 kind of night.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
LCN
3-4-2-1WXM
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Lincoln City
Knee Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Wrexham
Thigh Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Physical Discomfort · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 23 Nov
Ankle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.577%
OVER 2.552%
OVER 3.530%
BTTS56%
LCN CLEAN SHEET25%
WXM CLEAN SHEET26%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
LCN
WXM
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
LCN
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 1–2 to QPR last outSCORING
1
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 5LAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3WXM
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
7
points · W2 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
LCN
1.30
LEAGUE1.35
WXM
1.39
WXM scores +0.09 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
LCN
1.52
LEAGUE1.35
WXM
1.26
WXM concedes 0.26 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
LCN
21st
Hovering above relegation on 15 points.
WXM
15th
Mid-table on 18 points.
WXM sit 6 places higher in the table
