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Bolton Wanderers vs Portsmouth
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 07:10 UTC · 9 NovModel is split — no outcome stands clear.
BOL 29%Draw 27%POR 44%
Expected goals · BOL 1.2 · POR 1.5 · 2.7 total
POR's attack (0.93x, below the league average) against BOL's defence (1.33x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.3.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for BOL's win chance, the blue ones for POR's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| BOL goals | POR 0 | POR 1 | POR 2 | POR 3 | POR 4 | POR 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOL 0 | 8% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| BOL 1 | 7% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| BOL 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| BOL 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOL 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BOL 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
BOL 29.1% · Draw 27.0% · POR 43.9%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (0.6%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0
COMPARE
Second model
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
Portsmouth have the edge at 44% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Portsmouth are favoured but the draw at 27% is too high to ignore — this doesn't feel like a walkover.
THE CAVEAT
The model uses league form only — it doesn't weight head-to-head history, recent injuries, or tactical changes that may shift the balance.
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
BOL
4-2-3-1POR
4-2-3-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
Bolton Wanderers
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Portsmouth
Muscle Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Calf Injury · Could return, due 21 Nov
Muscle Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 10 Dec
Ankle Injury
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.575%
OVER 2.550%
OVER 3.528%
BTTS54%
BOL CLEAN SHEET22%
POR CLEAN SHEET31%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
BOL
POR
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
BOL
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–3 to Derby last outSCORING
4
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L3POR
LOSING RUN
1
Lost 1–2 to Stoke City last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last 2LAST 5
8
points · W2 D2 L1VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.35SCORED · PER 90
BOL
1.46
LEAGUE1.35
POR
1.46
Attacks level on season average
CONCEDED · PER 90
BOL
1.62
LEAGUE1.35
POR
1.18
POR concedes 0.44 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
BOL
18th
Mid-table on 17 points.
POR
11th
Mid-table on 22 points.
POR sit 7 places higher in the table
