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Hoffenheim vs SK Sturm Graz
Pre-match
FORECAST
As of 12:35 UTC · 13 NovTSG 51%Draw 26%STG 24%
Expected goals · TSG 1.8 · STG 1.1 · 2.9 total
TSG's attack (1.09x the league average) against STG's defence (1.08x, conceding more than average) gives an expected-goals edge of 0.7.
MOST LIKELY SCORELINES
Show the maths
Every square is one final score. Add up the green squares for TSG's win chance, the blue ones for STG's, and the grey diagonal for the draw. Model estimate, not odds.
| TSG goals | STG 0 | STG 1 | STG 2 | STG 3 | STG 4 | STG 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 0 | 6% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TSG 1 | 8% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| TSG 2 | 8% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| TSG 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TSG 4 | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TSG 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
TSG 50.5% · Draw 25.8% · STG 23.6%
Scores with 6+ goals for either side (1.2%) are counted in the totals but not drawn.
OneTouch call · statistical model, for interest not betting advice
Model dc-v2.0+cup
COMPARE
OneTouch fans
Your call?THE READ
THE CALL
TSG Hoffenheim have the edge at 51% — the likeliest outcome, not a certain one.
THE ANGLE
Expected goals of 1.9 vs 1.1 gives TSG Hoffenheim the edge but leaves room for SK Sturm Graz to stay in it.
THE CAVEAT
Cup dynamics in the Europa League — rotation and giant-killing patterns sit outside the model's league-form data.
CUPEuropa League
TEAM SHEETS
predicted XI, manager & bench depth
TSG
4-4-2STG
3-4-2-1Predicted line-up
TEAM NEWS
TSG Hoffenheim
Suspended · Could return, due 15 Nov
Hamstring Injury · Could return, due 20 Nov
Knee Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 30 Nov
Broken Ankle · Expected back 10 Jan
Meniscus Injury · Expected back 10 Jan
SK Sturm Graz
Knee Injury · Expected back 5 Dec
Broken Ankle
Refreshed about every 30 minutes. Return dates are estimates.
SIGNALS
OVER 1.580%
OVER 2.555%
OVER 3.534%
BTTS55%
TSG CLEAN SHEET32%
STG CLEAN SHEET17%
FORM & MEETINGS
recent results, streaks and prior meetings
RECENT FORM · LAST 5
TSG
STG
Solid badge = vs. top-tier opponent
CURRENT STREAK · BOTH SIDES
TSG
UNBEATEN
2
games without defeatSCORING
3
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L2STG
UNBEATEN
0
Lost 2–3 to Celje last outSCORING
2
games finding the netCLEAN SHEETS
0
conceded in their last matchLAST 5
4
points · W1 D1 L2VENUE PATTERNS
how each side performs at their ground
GOALS PER GAME
LEAGUE AVG1.40SCORED · PER 90
TSG
1.61
LEAGUE1.40
STG
0.75
TSG scores +0.86 more per 90
CONCEDED · PER 90
TSG
1.49
LEAGUE1.40
STG
1.38
STG concedes 0.11 fewer per 90
STATE OF PLAY
discipline, stakes and what's on the horizon
MATCH CONTEXT · STAKES
TSG
23rd
On 4 points.
STG
24th
On 4 points.
TSG sit 1 place higher in the table
